Augmented Reality, Qr codes & other great technology ideas. You never know how things are going to turn out

Over 7 years ago I carried out a large qualitative research project for a leading mobile operator on the appeal of 3G services. We looked at Location Based Services including offers ‘on the move’, video telephony (a la Apple Face Time), traffic navigation and a whole host of other new developments.

In one form or another the vast majority of the services we researched have been adopted (or are in the process of being adopted) but, looking back, two things really stand out for me.

The first is the time it has taken for change to happen. 7+ years ago I confidently stood in a room full of senior clients and told them that the market was there and consumers wanted these types of services. What I didn’t foresee was the very long time lag involved. Granted the infrastructure might not have been in place (and it’s still not quite there) but the speed of adoption has been, in my eyes at least, painfully slow.

I guess this partly tells us that consumers can struggle when faced with too many new ideas and choices being given to them at once. I remember at the time thinking that they were like kids in a sweetie shop not quite knowing what to pick first. But I guess it also serves as a warning to those of us in the marketing community who feel that Augmented Reality, QR codes and other such innovations will be in everyone’s hands and minds within the next few months.

The second thing that stands out for me is the unpredictability of technological evolution and adoption. Some of the ideas in the research met with hearty guffaws. Why would anyone want to stand in front of the Eiffel Tower and receive information on their mobile when they could just look at an information board at the base of the tower? And yet that, in essence, has become one of the driving thoughts behind Augmented Reality (which I’m sure will be a great hit one day). Consumers in focus groups could not foresee (and neither could we) the development of Augmented Reality in its present guise. If the same idea was presented now (and consumers could actually see how it could be applied), I’m sure the reaction would be very different.

So what does all this tell us? For me there are a couple of key lessons. I think that research when used properly can help us understand the underlying demand for most things (but not all). What research is weak at, however, is in predicting time frames and the shape of technology adoption. Perhaps more importantly I think it is good for us to remember that technology adoption can take years, even when we know the ideas are good ones. I’m glad that we in the marketing community are in the forefront of pushing for these new technologies to be adopted but I’d be wary of placing too much emphasis on their return within campaigns early doors. I hope Augmented Reality, QR codes and the like will be adopted quickly but will they be? Who knows?

By Graham Ellor, Digital Planner